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oil prices have soared in recent years, due in large part by speculation, in which long-term low interest rate environment, “to form a” large number of idle capital is undoubtedly the protagonist of trouble in the commodities market, while the financial institutions from the United States is “main force in the main” -

in climbing a record high of 78.40 U.S. dollars, the international oil prices continued to fall last two months, suddenly, even count the recent two-day rally, oil prices decline so far has nearly 20% of the .

According to the latest Customs statistics, in the first eight months, China imported 95.8 million tons of crude oil, up 15.3%, 12.5% higher than in July and the full-year 2005 increase of 3.3%.

Regardless of the drastic devaluation of the real reason for the international oil price, as it may be very complex, only from the above comparison of two sets of data would be sufficient for us to suspect that Western society advocated by the “China’s strong demand pushed oil prices” are the statement whether there is any basis in fact.

demand from China is only “cover”

“China’s crude oil imports in the world (crude oil) trade in a very small proportion, how it may be sufficient to push international oil prices?” Energy Research Institute, State Development Planning Commission official who asked not to be named to the told reporters, “From the perspective of supply and demand, China’s demand will certainly bring about some impact on oil prices, but the level is very low.”

Prior to this, the Ministry of Commerce has according to the 2005 estimate of China’s crude oil imports, China’s crude oil total share of global trade, imports of crude oil accounts for about 6%. The same year, U.S. crude oil imports reached 505 million tons, nearly four times that of China, that is, the U.S. crude oil imports accounted for the proportion of the global oil trade, nearly 25%.

“Chinese demand is a factor, but not all,” HSBC economist Qu Hongbin, chief China also pointed out.

Qu Hongbin analysis on the whole, oil prices mainly affected by three factors: aggregate demand, supply and speculative factors, the three accounted for about one-third. While on the demand level, China’s influence at best, account for half of the maximum. “In so doing China’s demand for international oil prices, it was only one-sixth, and nothing more,” he said.

“Chinese demand pushed oil prices is a fallacy,” the Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Management, Associate Professor Si-Wei told reporters.

meditation Wei said that in the Western media to stir up trouble, the China threat theory once rampant. As a result, some hedge funds to China as a profitable means of game, and through the media hype. In fact, China’s primary energy coal, accounting for 70% of the total energy consumption, and can be self-sufficient. Although oil consumption and imports have a certain increase, but growth in the number of not have a significant impact on international oil prices.

last year, China’s crude oil import growth declined sharply, the overall last year, international oil prices are still up more than 40%; this year, China’s crude oil imports in recent months has increased, but the international price of oil has dropped by 23% much.

“can be seen between the two there is no-one relationship between oil prices did not rise and fall with the ebb and flow of Chinese demand.” Qu Hongbin said.

the United States is the largest oil market speculators

experts pointed out that oil prices soared in recent years, due in large part by speculation, in which long-term low interest rate environment, “to form a” large number of hot money, no doubt stirred up trouble in the commodity market the protagonist, while the financial institutions from the United States is “the main force in the main.”

According to statistics, as of the end of July this year, 12 months, the Americans a total energy mutual funds invest 23.5 billion U.S. dollars, from 2003 to 2005, these funds, the average return on investment as high as 33%, more than any other type of investment funds. At the same time, according to the U.S. Energy Hedge Fund Center, USA A total of 525 hedge funds invest in energy and other commodities, capital size of up to 67.4 billion U.S. dollars, twice the level for the beginning of the year. In October 2004, the number of similar funds, there are only 180.

while in the other side, the major multinational oil companies are also a lot of fish “oil ticket” in the U.S. “Fortune” magazine issued by the U.S. ranking last year, 500 companies, Exxon Mobil Corporation in order to profit topped 36.1 billion U.S. dollars first place, profits jumped by 43%.

Shanghai Jiaotong University Si-Wei believes that continued high oil prices in recent years, the fundamental reason is that the supply of U.S. dollars over a large number of U.S. dollars in order to seek higher-yielding, high oil prices pushing up. In addition, the United States with “anti-terrorism” means to seek the oil interests, but also increased people’s fear of energy shortage.

As oil prices plunged the last two months, the U.S. economy cools concern is that on the one hand, but some experts believe that mid-term elections in the United States, the financial sector in order to give the Bush administration to create a favorable atmosphere for people who wish to run down oil prices, but also is not impossible. In a sense, the United States is the Guojiyoushi ups and downs good show scenes of “general director.”

Si-Wei pointed out that in the current international oil market, living in a “core layer” is a multinational financial institutions, multinational oil group, represented by interest groups, leveraging of hedge funds and other institutions has raised the oil prices and stock prices, while the multinational oil group were by arranging the production of certain idle to control oil production.

From this perspective, “the current international oil price has become a Zhuanggu, a high-risk Zhuanggu.” (Xinhua Zhu Zhou)

“中国能源威胁论”不攻自破谁是最大的石油市场投机者

油价飙升，近年来，受到投机行为，在长期低利率环境“，形成”的大量游资，在很大程度上是由于无疑是麻烦，商品市场的主角，而金融来自美国的机构是“主要” -

在登山纪录78.40美元，国际石油价格居高不下的主要力量继续下跌近两个月来，突然，甚至数最近两天的反弹，油价下跌到目前为止，有近20％。

据最新海关统计，前8个月，中国进口九千五百八十零点○○○万吨原油，同比增长15.3％，12.5％，高于7月和2005年全年3.3％的升幅。

无论对国际石油价格大幅贬值的真正原因，因为它可能会非常复杂，不仅从两组数据比较，将上述足以让我们怀疑，西方社会的“中国的强劲需求，倡导推动油价“的声明是否有任何事实依据。

来自中国的需求只是“封面”

“中国在世界上的（原油）贸易的比例很小，怎么可能足以推动国际油价的原油进口呢？”能源研究所，国家发展计划委员会官员谁不愿透露姓名的告诉记者，“从供给和需求的角度来看，中国的需求肯定会带来一些对油价的影响，但水平很低。”

在此之前，商务部已经根据中国的原油进口，中国的原油占全球贸易的份额2005年的估计，原油进口占约6％。同年，美国原油进口量达到五点○五亿吨，近4倍，中国认为，这是美国原油进口占全球石油贸易的比重，近25％。

“中国的需求是一个因素，但不是全部，”汇丰银行经济学家屈宏斌首席中国还指出。

区轰宾总体上分析，石油价格主要由三个因素：总需求，供给和投机因素的影响，三约占三分之一。而在需求方面，中国的影响充其量占了最大的一半。 “这样做中国对国际石油价格的需求，它只是六分之一，仅此而已，”他说。

“中国需求推动油价上涨是一个谬论，”上海交通大学管理学院副教授斯伟对记者说。

冥想尉健行说，在西方媒体的推波助澜下，对中国威胁论一度猖獗。因此，一些对冲基金作为中国游戏盈利手段，并通过媒体的炒作。事实上，中国的主要能源煤炭的70％，能源消费总量占，可以自给自足。尽管石油消费量和进口有一定增加，但在数量的增加不会对国际油价产生重大影响。

去年，中国原油进口增长大幅下降，去年的整体，国际石油价格仍然上升超过40％，今年，中国在最近几个月原油进口有所增加，但国际石油价格下降了23％多。

“可以看出两者之间有没有一个人之间的关系，石油价格并没有上升和下降的低潮和中国需求的流动。”区轰滨说。

美国是最大的石油市场投机商

专家指出，石油价格大幅飙升，在很大程度上是由于受到投机行为，在长期低利率环境“，形成”热钱大量毫无疑问，引起许多麻烦商品市场的主角，而来自美国的金融机构是“主要的主力军。”

据统计，截至今年7月底，12个月，美国总能源的共同基金投资二三五零零零零零零零零美元，2003年至05年，这些资金，就高达33％，更多的投资平均收益率比任何其他类型的投资基金。与此同时，据美国能源对冲基金中心的525对冲基金在能源和其他商品，资本投资最多规模达6740亿美元，两倍于今年年初总水平。 2004年10月，类似基金的数目，只有180个。

而在其他方面，主要的跨国石油公司也是许多鱼类“石油换票证在美国”财富“美国的排名去年发表杂志”，500家公司，埃克森美孚公司，以从中获利超过三百六十一亿首先美元，利润增长了43％。

上海交通大学斯伟认为，近几年持续高油价，其根本原因是，美元以上的美元大量供应，以寻求高收益，高油价推升。此外，与“美国的反恐怖主义”的手段来谋求石油利益，而且也增加了人们对能源短缺的恐惧。

随着石油价格下跌了近两个月，美国经济降温的担心是，一方面，但一些专家认为，中期，在美国中期选举，金融部门，以使布什政府创造一个良好的气氛的人谁希望缩减油价，但也并非不可能。从某种意义上说，美国是Guojiyoushi起伏精彩的表演场面“的总经理。”

斯伟指出，在当前国际石油市场，在“核心层的生活”是一个跨国金融机构，跨国石油集团，利益集团的代表，对冲基金和其他机构的利用提高了石油价格和股票价格，而跨国石油集团被安排某些闲置来控制石油产量生产。

从这个角度看，“当前的国际石油价格已经成为一个壮骨，高风险壮骨。” （记者朱肘）06.9.29